2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season (ProtoJeb21)
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season was an above-average season with activity before and after the official boundaries. The season began with Hurricane Arthur, the first major hurricane during the month of April. Many of the storms this season were record-breakers or had unusual characteristics. Several major hurricanes made landfall in the United States and its territories, either as Category 3+ or below peak intensity. This is the largest amount since 2005. The strongest of those, Hurricane Isaias, became the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Wilma in 2005, and the deadliest tropical cyclone since Hurricane Matthew of 2016. This season also featured Hurricane Laura, the first cyclone to cross from the Atlantic to the Pacific and make landfall in northern Baja California. Most forecasters predicted a slightly above average season. However, when there were already 13 named storms by August 31st, the forecasts were changed to a hyperactive year like 2005. Tropical activity suddenly stopped for a 3.5-week period, leading to a season between both predictions. Overall the season resulted in $67 billion in damage and 1,305 deaths, making it the costliest since 2012 and the deadliest since 2016. Seasonal Forecasts In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk, the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained roughly 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and anaccumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 66–103 units.35 NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are considered occasionally as well. Pre-season forecasts On December 20th, 2019, the public consortium Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) predicted a slightly above average season. They said that the 2020 season should see 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The prediction was based on the high activity in the Atlantic since the deadly 2016 season, but also of a potential El Nino later in the year. Also, TSR forecasts showed that the waters from Cape Verde to the Caribbean would start out warmer than average and conductive to potential cyclone development. Weather Services International (WSI), a subsidiary company of The Weather Channel, followed up on TSR's forecast in January 2020, saying that the year could spawn up to 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. TSR released their second long-range forecast on April 14th with a slightly different prediction: 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. However, they revised their prediction when Tropical Depression One (later Hurricane Arthur) formed just a week later. The new forecast predicted 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. NOAA released their forecast just a day later, predicting 17 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. WSI and CSU also had similar predictions, and all groups forecast ACE index values between 100 and 150. Mid-season forecasts By the final day of August 2020, there had already been an above-average number of cyclones, forcing NOAA and other weather agencies to make new predictions. TSR released a forecast on September 3rd that predicted a total of 26 named storms, 17 hurricanes, and 10 major hurricanes by the end of the year. They also predicted an ACE index value of at least 200. NOAA predicted another 10 named storms for 2020 and a total ACE value of 215. In the end, these forecasts turned out to be far above what actually happened. Seasonal Summary The 2020 season was a significantly active year, where 20 total cyclones formed from the months of April through December, similar to the 2003 season. 17 cyclones were named, and 13 of those peaked with winds of over 75 mph. 7 hurricanes peaked at Category 3 intensity of higher, with most of those forming between July and September. With such a large amount of storms came many odd and notable ones. Hurricane Arthur became the earliest major hurricane on record, peaking at Category 3 intensity on April 25th. Tropical Storm Cristobal peaked at Tropical Storm intensity a total of 3 times before dissipating on June 18th. On August 13th, Hurricane Isaias became the strongest Atlantic Hurricane since 2005's Wilma. After making landfall as a strong tropical storm in Mississippi on August 23rd, Tropical Storm Kyle caused $4.5 billion in damage. This was the first time since 2001 that a tropical storm's damage resulted in a multi-billion dollar disaster. Hurricane Laura crossed into the Eastern Pacific basin on August 29th before curving north and hitting Baja California on September 2nd. While the traditional dates set tropical cyclone formation between June 1st and November 30th each year in the Atlantic, 2020 saw 2 pre-season cyclones: Hurricane Arthur in April, and Tropical Depression Two in late May. There was a flurry of activity in August of that year. Starting from August 2nd to 30th, a total of 6 named storms formed, 5 becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes. An abrupt gap in tropical cyclone formation lead to the formation of Hurricane Nana on October 1st, nearly a month after the last cyclone in the basin dissipated. The month of October saw 3 cyclones and two hurricanes, the highest amount in the month since 2012. Tropical Storm Paulette formed in mid-November and, due to weak steering currents, stayed in the same favorable environment for a total of 16 days. Hurricane Rene became the first December hurricane since 2005. 2020 saw 20 total cyclones. They were... * Hurricane ARTHUR * Tropical Storm BERTHA * Tropical Depression THREE * Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL * Hurricane DOLLY * Hurricane EDOUARD * Hurricane FAY * Hurricane GONZALO * Tropical Storm HANNA * Hurricane ISAIAS * Tropical Depression ELEVEN * Hurricane JOSEPHINE * Tropical Storm KYLE * Hurricane LAURA * Hurricane MARCO * Hurricane NANA * Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN * Hurricane OMAR * Tropical Storm PAULETTE * Hurricane RENE Storms Hurricane Arthur A weak tropical wave entered the Atlantic Ocean on April 17th. The NHC payed no attention to it, as it was unlikely to develop. However, it fused with a low pressure system moving away from the Caribbean on April 20th. Among favorable conditions, the fusion of the two systems managed to develop into Tropical Depression One by 3:00 UTC on April 21st. The cyclone slowly intensified into Tropical Storm Arthur 18 hours later, but moved into very conductive waters south of Cuba. It was there that Arthur underwent a rapid intensification phase, peaking at a Category 3 hurricane on April 24th. Weak steering currents kept Hurricane Arthur in the Caribbean Sea for a few days, enabling it to strengthen so quickly. Arthur eventually moved northwest, striking Jamaica as a Category 2 hurricane and later southern Florida as a Category 1. Arthur moved out to sea and become extratropical on April 26th, eventually dissipating several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda on April 28th. Tropical Storm Bertha An area of low pressure about 150 miles southeast of Belize, generated by a tropical wave, was monitored for possible development on May 14th. It moved into the Gulf of Mexico, becoming organized enough to be declared Tropical Depression Two around 12:00 UTC on May 16th. A burst of convection the next day caused the depression to strengthen into Tropical Storm Bertha. It later achieved peak intensity of 65 mph winds and a pressure of 996 mbar before land interaction on the coast of Alabama caused Bertha to degrade into a remnant low on May 18th. The remnants of Bertha crossed over Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, causing moderate flooding. Overall, damage was minimal and only 2 people died. Tropical Depression Three On May 31st, a strong area of low pressure 235 miles north-northwest of the Dominican Republic was designated as Tropical Depression Three. Forecasts showed that it could impact Bermuda as a strong tropical storm. However, Three took an unexpected path into unfavorable waters and fizzled late on June 1st. Tropical Storm Cristobal An upper-level trough over the central Atlantic spawned an area of low pressure which fused with a tropical wave on June 8th. It continued moving westward until the disturbance attained a closed circulation on June 11th. Tropical Depression Four was designated, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal just 6 hours later. Cristobal reached initial peak intensity of 55 mph and 1001 mbar just 90 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico on June 12th. However, it made landfall on the tiny island and weakened back into a depression. Cristobal re-emerged into the Atlantic Ocean early on June 13 and become a tropical storm again. It reached its second peak just north of Cuba on June 14, made a second landfall in Moa, and once again weakened below 39 mph. Tropical Depression Cristobal was pulled north by a high pressure system over most of the Atlantic, moving back into conductive waters. While over the Bahamas from June 15 to 17, Cristobal peaked as a 65 mph tropical storm twice and killed 5 people. It finally moved out of the islands, weakened into a depression, and become extra-tropical on June 18. Hurricane Dolly A tropical wave was noted on the coast of Africa on July 6th. It moved into the Atlantic just south of the Cabo Verde islands on July 8th and was given a high chance of development during the next 5 days. This disturbance quickly gained organization before being classifies Tropical Depression Five on July 10th. Strengthening was slow over the next 2 days. Five became Tropical Storm Dolly on July 13th and, over time, moved into more conductive waters before a burst of convection elevated Dolly to hurricane status on July 14th. Hurricane Dolly began to curve northwards and gradually strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 miles per hour. The storm passed off the coast of Nova Scotia on July 16th, struck Newfoundland as a strong tropical storm, and deteriorated on July 17th. Category:Future tropical cyclone season Category:Future tropical cyclone seasons